John Romano
Tampa Bay Times
TAMPA, Fla. — New quarterback. New coordinator. New system. New line.
Same offense.
Defies the imagination, doesn’t it? Like a shell game that never ends.
The Bucs finished last season averaging 18.4 points per game and thoroughly fed up with their offense. So they tore it up, brought in new pieces, rebuilt it and, all these months later, are averaging 18.0 points per game.
It’s almost Dali-like in its absurdity. How could you spend so much time running from your past only to discover the future looks exactly the same? Except with a shorter quarterback.
To be fair, I’m speaking in generalities. The offense does not actually look the same, it only performs that way. Under new coordinator Dave Canales, the Bucs have changed their blocking schemes, passing routes, the amount of pre-snap motion and the way they incorporate their tight ends in pass protection.
But when you look at the scoreboard, it’s like someone forgot to turn the page on 2022.
In some ways, Tampa Bay has gone backward. Through the first five games of last season, the Bucs were averaging 337.6 yards per game. Today, they are at 291.4. Now, maybe that’s not such a huge surprise. Because they were determined to run the ball more, the yardage total was probably not going to look as gaudy.
Instead, an improved running game was going to allow the Bucs to hold on to the ball longer, control the pace of the game and keep opposing offenses off the field. But after their self-described clunker against the Lions on Sunday, the Bucs are near the bottom of the league in the average number of offensive plays.
And they are noticeably worse at running the ball.
Some of that has been obscured because Tom Brady adamantly refused to leave the pocket, and Baker Mayfield is gaining a handful of yards by throwing his body around like a bumper car. But if you subtract quarterback rushes from the equation, the Bucs had 97 runs for 337 yards (3.47 per carry) through the first five games of last season. Without Mayfield’s totals, they have 108 runs for 327 yards (3.02) this season. You read that right. Eleven more rushes for 10 fewer yards.
That doesn’t seem possible. You were already starting with one of the worst rushing games in the league, and somehow it’s gotten worse? After you spent the entire offseason vowing to install a run-friendly offense?
“We are only five games in. It’s going to be a work in progress,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “If we put too much emphasis on it, (defenses are) going to take it away and we (have) to throw it. So, it’s a lot of cat-and-mouse things. When you get behind, you have to throw it a little more. We weren’t behind as much, but we were in some tight ballgames. It’s going to develop into what we think it will.”
Honestly, it’s hard to see that happening this season. The problems plaguing the running game are too ingrained to be a fluke.
The offensive line was remodeled with Tristan Wirfs moving from right to left tackle, Luke Goedeke going from left guard to right tackle, rookie Cody Mauch starting at right guard and free agent Matt Feiler brought in to start at left guard. This was going to be a new era in run-blocking, but it hasn’t come close to working.
Tampa Bay running backs have averaged only 1.9 yards per carry before making contact with a defensive player, according to pro-football-reference.com. That’s 30th in the league, and it suggests the line is failing to create clean holes. Not to be outdone, the running backs are averaging 1.0 yard per carry after contact, which is tied for worst in the league.
So your linemen aren’t blocking, and your running backs aren’t breaking tackles. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for success going forward.
When the Bucs selected Rachaad White in the third round of the 2022 draft, part of the attraction was his versatility in the passing game. And he did, indeed, catch 50 passes as a rookie last season. But it’s starting to look like White lacks either the speed or vision — or both — to be considered a running threat.
There are 32 running backs with at least 199 carries the past two seasons. White is last on the list with an average of 3.6 yards per carry.
The problem with the running game being slightly worse than last season is that the Bucs were counting on it to revamp an offense that is no longer near the top of the league throwing the ball. At this point last season, Brady was averaging 281.8 yards passing with only one interception. Mayfield is averaging 217.6 yards with three interceptions.
So what does it all mean?
No one was expecting Tampa Bay to be a highlight machine on offense. Essentially, Bowles wanted dependability more than flash.
Unfortunately, at this point, the Bucs have been neither.
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