John Clay
Lexington Herald-Leader
LEXINGTON, Ky. — Never mind the bludgeoning at Georgia, or Mark Stoops telling disgruntled fans on his radio show to “pony up” for better players, or the number of UK victories over winning teams.
Halfway through the 2023 season, Kentucky football is at a crossroads.
On paper, the Wildcats could win all six remaining games.
On paper, the Wildcats could lose all six remaining games.
Here’s what my crystal ball sees for the last half of the campaign:
Missouri
Kentucky isn’t the only SEC team in a bad mood. Missouri arrives at Kroger Field for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. kickoff steaming from its 49-39 loss to LSU last Saturday — Mizzou led 22-7 at one point — and its 21-17 loss to Kentucky last year in Columbia. No doubt Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz put the Sharpie to the Oct. 14 calendar date months ago.
Missouri quarterback Brady Cook and receiver Luther Burden are a dynamic duo. Mizzou’s defense is vulnerable, but can Kentucky take advantage? Come midnight Saturday, one team will be 6-1, the other 5-2 and losers of two straight.
I say an improved Missouri claims its revenge.
Tennessee
For Kentucky, this year’s Georgia debacle was last year’s Tennessee debacle. The Cats were humbled 44-6 in Knoxville. And it wasn’t that close. In two games against Kentucky, Josh Heupel’s Vols have scored 89 points.
UT’s 2023 edition is good, but not quite as good as the 12-2 Vols of 2022. Quarterback Joe Milton is not Hendon Hooker. Losing receiver Bru McCoy for the season to an ankle injury doesn’t help. And Tennessee will be coming off their annual third-Saturday-in-October meeting with Alabama.
Fresh from a much-needed open date, give me Kentucky at home on Oct. 28.
Mississippi State
Starkville has never been Stoops’ happy place. The UK coach is 0-5 at Davis Wade Stadium. He was 0-3 vs. Dan Mullen, 0-1 vs. Joe Moorhead and 0-1 vs. Mike Leach, who died at age 61 last December.
Under first-year head coach Zach Arnett, the host Bulldogs are a shadow of their former selves. They’ve struggled in a new non-Air Raid offense and are currently No. 92 in total defense.
It says here Stoops will finally depart Starkville on Nov. 4 with a smile.
Alabama
Given what happened at Georgia, Kentucky will want to make a better showing against the biggest brand name left on its schedule, but … Alabama is 38-2-1 all-time versus Kentucky. It is 15-2 in Lexington and 1-0 in Louisville (1945) versus the Cats. Nick Saban is 3-0 vs. Mark Stoops. Scores: 48-7 in 2013; 34-6 in 2016; 63-3 in 2020.
After that 34-24 loss to visiting Texas on Sept. 9, the Crimson Tide has figured things out. Bama has circled back to Nick Saban’s fundamentals of football. The Tide runs the ball. The Tide plays great defense. The Tide doesn’t beat itself.
And the Tide will be too much for the Cats on Nov. 11 at Kroger Field.
South Carolina
This was the preseason pick for the season’s most important game. What was true then will hold true Nov. 18 in Columbia. After all, South Carolina’s 24-14 win over the Cats at Kroger Field last year propelled the Gamecocks to a better-than-expected second campaign under Shane Beamer.
The good news: Kentucky has consistently played well at Williams Brice Stadium. Stoops is 3-2 there, including a 16-10 victory in 2021. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue.
It says here UK spoils Beamer’s day (or night).
Louisville
In his return as a head coach, former Louisville quarterback Jeff Brohm has been beyond even what Cardinal fans dreamed. Louisville is 6-0 overall, 3-0 in the ACC with a win over Notre Dame. It’s ranked No. 14 in the AP Top 25 and No. 15 in the coaches poll.
As for the Governor’s Cup, U of L has lost four straight. Come Nov. 25 at L and N Stadium, I look for the Cards to snap that streak and end Kentucky’s regular season at 8-4 overall, 5-3 in the SEC.
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